By: HFI staff

The Islamic Republic of Iran has been at the center of global security concerns for decades, particularly regarding its nuclear program and its network of regional proxies. These two elements of Iranian policy present a multifaceted challenge to Israel, the Middle East, and international law. This article examines Iran’s nuclear ambitions, its disregard for international regulations, and the role of its proxies in exacerbating tensions, particularly with Israel.

Iran’s Nuclear Program: Ambitions and Concerns

Iran’s nuclear program officially began in the 1950s under the Shah, with Western support as part of the "Atoms for Peace" initiative. After the 1979 Islamic Revolution, the program took on a different character, aligning with the regime’s strategic goals of regional dominance and self-reliance in military technology.

While Iran claims its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, such as energy production and medical research, evidence and actions suggest otherwise. Reports from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and Western intelligence agencies indicate Iran has taken steps toward developing nuclear weapons capabilities, including enrichment of uranium to weapons-grade levels and work on advanced centrifuges.

Key moments in Iran’s nuclear history highlight its contentious trajectory and global impact:

• In 2002, the discovery of secret nuclear facilities at Natanz and Arak, undisclosed to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), violated Iran’s obligations under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and raised international alarms. 
• The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), or the Iran Nuclear Deal, was introduced to curb Iran’s nuclear activities in exchange for sanctions relief, but Iran began scaling back its commitments after the United States withdrew from the agreement in 2018 under President Donald Trump. 
• By 2024, Iran had enriched uranium to nearly weapons-grade levels (60% purity) and drastically reduced IAEA oversight, limiting access to its facilities and cameras, drawing widespread condemnation from Western nations and further destabilizing the region.

Non-Adherence to International Law

Iran’s defiance of international agreements and norms is a recurring theme in its foreign policy. The country’s refusal to comply fully with the NPT and its commitments under the JCPOA underscores its disregard for international oversight.

1. IAEA Oversight Evasion: Despite inspections and monitoring, Iran has repeatedly been accused of obstructing the IAEA’s work. This includes dismantling monitoring equipment and failing to provide credible explanations for uranium traces found at undeclared sites.
2. Violation of UN Resolutions: Multiple UN Security Council resolutions have called on Iran to halt uranium enrichment and proliferation-sensitive activities. However, Tehran has continued to expand its program in violation of these mandates.
3. Proxy Warfare: Iran’s use of proxy groups to destabilize neighboring countries and target Israel directly undermines international law, particularly the principles of sovereignty and non-interference.

Iran’s Proxies: A Network of Regional Destabilization

Iran’s strategy of asymmetrical warfare relies heavily on a network of proxy groups that advance its regional ambitions. These proxies, armed and financed by Tehran, serve as tools for exerting influence while providing plausible deniability for direct Iranian involvement.

Hezbollah (Lebanon):
Hezbollah remains a key proxy of Iran, posing a persistent threat to Israeli security. However, its operational capacity has been significantly diminished due to ongoing Israeli airstrikes and military operations. These strikes have severely damaged Hezbollah's infrastructure, including its weapons storage sites, command centers, and leadership. The group still possesses over 150,000 rockets aimed at Israel, but its ability to conduct large-scale military operations has been hindered by the loss of key figures and the destruction of vital resources.

Even with these setbacks, Hezbollah continues to be a crucial element of Iran's broader strategy to destabilize the region. The group remains active in provoking Israel along the northern border and is believed to be rearming and fortifying its positions during quieter periods. While Hezbollah's military capabilities are reduced, its political influence in Lebanon and its role as Iran's primary proxy in the region mean that it remains a significant factor in regional security dynamics. The group's long-term ability to rebuild and retaliate against Israeli strikes will depend on continued support from Tehran and the rebuilding of its infrastructure, which remains a critical part of Hezbollah’s strategy.

Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (Gaza):
Following Israeli operations in Gaza, Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) in Gaza are in a state of significant turmoil and chaos due to the ongoing conflict with Israel. IDF has eliminated numerous high-ranking leaders and severely damaging the infrastructure of both groups. This has left Hamas and PIJ in a fragmented and weakened state, struggling to maintain control over Gaza amid widespread destruction.

Despite receiving continued support from Iran, which helps sustain their military capabilities, their operational effectiveness has been deeply compromised. Gaza's civilian infrastructure has been decimated, and the leadership vacuum within Hamas has further destabilized the region. The chaos has also fueled internal power struggles, with Hamas facing challenges in governing the territory effectively. While Iran continues to bolster these groups, their capacity for coordinated and sustained operations against Israel has been dramatically reduced, and they are now more focused on survival and recovery rather than large-scale military offensives.

Shiite Militias (Iraq and Syria):
As of December 2024, with the fall of Bashar al-Assad and the takeover of Syria by rebel factions, Iran's strategy in the region has been significantly impacted. Despite the shift in power, Iran continues to rely on Shiite militias like Kataib Hezbollah and Liwa Fatemiyoun, which are backed by the IRGC, to maintain its influence in Syria. These militias have shifted focus from supporting the Assad regime to engaging in proxy warfare, particularly in regions of strategic importance such as the Golan Heights and the Iraq-Syria border.

The rise of rebel groups in Syria has complicated Iran’s presence, but the militias remain a key tool in Tehran’s efforts to maintain its foothold, disrupt opposition forces, and secure vital access to weapons and fighters. Their role in Syria has become increasingly focused on containing rebel control and countering Kurdish autonomy, continuing Iran’s efforts to exert regional influence despite the changing landscape.

Houthi Rebels (Yemen):
The Houthis, who control much of northern Yemen, have received Iranian support, including ballistic missiles and drones. These weapons have been used to target various Israeli cities from Tel Aviv to Eilat and have increased over the last few months. Just this week, hitting a residential building in the central city of Yavne. 

The Threat to Israel

For Israel, the combination of Iran’s nuclear ambitions and proxy network presents a dual threat. Israel views a nuclear-armed Iran as an existential danger, given the regime’s repeated calls for the destruction of the Jewish state. Furthermore, Iran’s proxies encircle Israel, creating a multi-front threat that complicates its defense strategy. 

Even amidst shifting dynamics in the region. On the northern front, Hezbollah’s arsenal of rockets and precision-guided missiles continues to threaten Israeli population centers and critical infrastructure. However, a fragile ceasefire with Hezbollah has momentarily reduced direct confrontations, though tensions remain high. In the south, Gaza lies in shambles after months of conflict, leaving its infrastructure severely damaged and its population struggling, despite substantial financial and military support from Iran. 

Meanwhile, Iran has amplified its use of cyberattacks and drone technology, targeting Israeli infrastructure and military assets to exert pressure without direct confrontation. Compounding these threats is the potential escalation of Iran's nuclear ambitions, which would fundamentally alter the balance of power in the region. A nuclear-armed Iran would embolden Tehran and its proxies, further destabilizing the region while severely limiting Israel’s strategic options—a scenario Israeli policymakers are determined to prevent.

Global and Regional Implications

The Iran-Israel dynamic is not merely a bilateral issue but a focal point for broader Middle Eastern and international security concerns. Iran’s actions have drawn the attention of major powers, including the United States, Russia, and China, each with competing interests in the region.

1. U.S. Policy:
   The United States has supported Israel’s efforts to counter Iranian influence while pursuing diplomatic solutions to limit Iran’s nuclear program. However, strained relations with Israel’s current government and shifting priorities have complicated these efforts.
2. Arab-Israeli Normalization:
   The Abraham Accords, which saw Israel normalize relations with the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco, are partly a response to the shared threat posed by Iran. These agreements underscore the regional consensus on countering Iranian aggression.
3. Global Energy Security:
   Iran’s actions, including threats to the Strait of Hormuz, impact global oil markets. Escalations involving Iran risk disrupting energy supplies, with far-reaching economic consequences.

Conclusion

Iran’s nuclear ambitions and its extensive network of proxy militias not only present an existential threat to Israel but also pose a significant danger to the U.S. and the West. Tehran’s blatant disregard for international laws, its support for Hezbollah, Hamas, and other terrorist organizations, and its growing missile capabilities challenge not just Israel’s security but also the stability of the entire region and beyond. Iran’s nuclear program, in particular, represents a dire threat not only to Israel’s survival but also to global peace, as a nuclear-armed Iran would shift the balance of power in the Middle East and embolden its proxies to engage in further destabilizing actions.

The U.S. and its allies face direct challenges from Iran’s actions, as Tehran’s military influence extends through proxy groups in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and Lebanon, potentially drawing the West into broader conflicts. Iran’s threats and nuclear ambitions have serious implications for Western security, creating a need for urgent international action to contain its growing power and prevent a broader conflict.

Israel cannot afford to wait for diplomatic solutions that may never materialize. Iran’s nuclear development and proxy warfare must be confronted before they escalate further. If Iran is allowed to obtain nuclear weapons, it will not only embolden its proxies but destabilize the entire Middle East, triggering a dangerous arms race. The international community must act now to prevent Iran from achieving its aggressive goals. Supporting Israel in its efforts to neutralize these threats is crucial to maintaining regional and global peace. The stakes are too high to ignore.

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